Class 8 vehicle backlog improves by almost 14K units in May

Class 8 vehicle figures for May 2023 (Graph: ACT Research).

ACT Research’s monthly report on Class 8 vehicles features several positive developments for the industry.

First, backlog is on a downward trajectory and decreased by 13,900 units to 189,200 units total.

With the year’s calendar in the annual seasonally weak period for orders (commonly from April to August), as well as a healthy supply chain enabling and elevating production, backlog should continue improving until 2024 overboards open, according to ACT Research.

In May, the Class 8 build rate was 1343 units per day, marking the ninth month in the past 12 that the build rate exceeded 1300 units per day.

The backlog-to-build ratio has declined 30 basis points month over month to 6.7 months (7.0 seasonally adjusted).

Heavy- and medium-duty retail sales are both up by double digits year over year, with the heavy-duty class ahead of 2022 by 14% at 29,700 units and medium-duty vehicles up by 26% over last year at 22,800 units.

“We expect positive momentum to slow in 2H’23 (more so in Q4),” said Eric Crawford, ACT Research vice president and senior analyst. “Already, one of the critical components of heavy vehicle demand, carrier profitability, is increasingly under pressure. In Q1, the public carriers’ profits declined to levels last seen in early 2020. While some of the decline was seasonal, public TL carrier margins were down 250 bps [year over year]. With contract rates expected to deteriorate into Q4, profit margins should continue to narrow.”