COVID-19, Regs Impacting CV Engine Demand: ACT

Economic indicators in recent months suggest the worst of the COVID-19 impact is in the rearview mirror for the commercial vehicle industry, according to the recently released N.A. Commercial Vehicle On-Highway Engine Outlook published by ACT Research and Rhein Associates.

The outlook highlights power source activity for commercial vehicles in Class 5 through Class 8, and includes five-year forecasts of engines volumes and product trends.

“With COVID-related shutdowns and supply chain disruptions still unraveling, a meaningful spike in cases could impact supply chains and by extension, new vehicle production – at least on a short-term basis,” said Kenny Vieth, president and senior analyst at ACT Research, Columbus, Ind.

The report also explained the impact regulations will play on future commercial vehicle engine/powertrain demand. Andrew Wrobel, senior powertrain analyst at Rhein Associates, said that “while the Advanced Clean Truck Rule currently is pushing to all but eliminate the diesel engine in new trucks for at least 15 states by 2050, internal combustion engine efficiency improvements will continue to be important.”

Concerning alternative fuels, Wrobel said that “the outlook for natural gas-powered Class 8 vehicles shows limited growth from today’s low market share levels, and despite the current pandemic, electric vehicle product development and new introductions continue. That said, each alternative fuel has its place.

“Truck fleets remain the primary users of natural gas engines, with refuse the leading vocational application, while medium-duty applications are identified as a primary adopting group of electric commercial vehicles because of their urban applications, with limited daily mileage and most returning to base overnight for easier recharge. School buses are also good candidates for alternative fuels, from propane to natural gas to electric.”

ACT Research publishes commercial vehicle truck, trailer, and bus industry data, market analysis and forecasts for the North America and China markets.

For more information about ACT’s N.A. On-Highway CV Engine Outlook, click here.