3 reasons for cautious optimism for heavy trucks

After a 2025 plagued by stagnant freight rates and regulatory and policy uncertainty, 2026 began with signs of cautious optimism for tractor and vocational markets, according to the latest release of the North American Commercial Vehicle OUTLOOK. The OUTLOOK reports on the trucking industry forecast, providing a status of commercial vehicle demand, tactical and strategic market analysis and forecasts ranging out five years.

“Firstly, the economy, aided by AI tailwinds, continues to outperform expectations, with GDP rising 4.3% in Q3. Crucially for the trucking industry, consumer spending remains robust, accounting for more than half of Q3 GDP growth,” according to Ken Vieth, ACT’s President and Senior Analyst. “Though concerns about the balance of growth persist, as wealthy households are behind most of the spending.

“Secondly, spot rates surged through November and December, helped by resilient consumer spending, severe weather and a quickening of capacity contractions,” he added. However, much of these gains may be reversed if January weather continues to warm, Vieth cautioned.

Finally, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency’s announcement in mid-November 2025 regarding EPA’27 provided much needed regulatory clarity for both manufacturers and fleets. EPA confirmed it would not delay the start date or weaken the core limits of stringent nitrogen oxide (NOx) standards for heavy-duty commercial vehicles, scheduled to take effect on Jan. 1, 2027.

This quickly triggered increased investment, with ACT’s preliminary December data showing North American Class 8 net orders totaling 42,700 units, up 16% y/y.

“In addition to regulatory pressures aiding demand, increasingly older fleets should facilitate some additional replacement demand in 2026,” Vieth forecast.

Also showing positive signs is the vocational market. “Like the tractor market, the vocational market was caught in regulatory and policy headwinds throughout 2025 but appears poised for a better than previously expected 2026,” said Vieth.