Update: Class 8 final orders up 32% y/y in August

Updated Sept. 25, 2026

Class 8 orders continued their year-over-year (y/y) upward trajectory in August, with final net orders reaching 16,951 units, up 32% year over year (y/y) on a seasonally adjusted basis, with Classes 5-7 total orders rising 37% y/y to 19,666 units, according to ACT Research’s State of the Industry: Classes 5-8 Vehicles report.

Despite the y/y gains, net orders fell 34% from the previous month, which the report attributed to typical late-summer seasonality; oversubscribed 2026 backlogs and constrained 2026 build slot availability; and the not yet open 2027 order books. July ending data showed 2H’26 backlogs oversubscribed by roughly 35,000 units. 

Weakness in housing and “K-shaped consumer spending” have had some negative impacts on freight rates, the report noted, but the recovery in U.S. manufacturing and continued buildout of data centers/utilities continue to marginally aid profitability and demand.

“While sequential weakness in Class 8 orders is in line with normal patterns for this time of year, robust year-over-year gains highlight the continued influence of supply-side freight market constraints and regulatory clarity,” said Carter Vieth, research analyst at ACT Research. “With spot freight rates up sharply and fleets gaining more planning visibility around EPA 2027 and non-compliance penalties, we expect order activity to rebound as seasonality improves and new year order boards open.”

Medium-duty orders

Classes 5-7 orders remained unchanged from the preliminary numbers reported at 20,000 units (20.5k SA) in August. On a seasonally adjusted basis, medium-duty orders have remained above 20,000 units for the past four months, up from the 16,000-unit order trend at the start of 2026. The timing of these gains suggests customers and dealers are working to get ahead of 2027 regulations, the report indicated, adding the country’s ongoing economic resilience despite inflationary headwinds is likely another factor supporting higher order levels.

“Despite increased macroeconomic uncertainty and elevated diesel prices, demand for new equipment remains solid, particularly in the tractor segment, where orders were up 39% year-over-year,” Vieth pointed out. “Medium-duty order strength appears to be supported by dealer inventory stocking ahead of regulatory changes and higher prices.”

Outlook

With actual economic activity and freight market metrics generally in line with expectations, ACT Research’s latest North American Commercial Vehicle OUTLOOK leaves both the Classes 5-7 and Class 8 forecasts unchanged in September, while the trailer forecast was reduced incrementally on perceived supply chain ramp challenges.

The current freight cycle continues to be defined by capacity constraints, with industry conversations highlighting ongoing supply-side challenges driven by the impact of regulatory and judicial changes. While demand for new equipment remains fundamentally supported by improving carrier profitability and pent-up replacement needs, the immediate challenge is the industry’s ability to ramp production, which is occurring now in the Class 8 market, but also particularly for trailers as the 2027 capex planning cycle begins.

“Supply-side constraints remain the defining feature of this cycle to date, even as carrier profitability improves and replacement demand builds,” said Ken Vieth, ACT’s president and senior analyst. “With Class 8 backlogs long and the industry working through the ‘growing pains’ of ramping production, the outlook for new equipment demand is healthy but increasingly dependent on how quickly supply chains and manufacturing tiers can respond.”