Economic & policy uncertainty risk commercial vehicle outlook

After a strong end to 2024, with Class 8 orders booked at a 357,000 seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) in Q4, the first months of 2025 have largely been defined by trade and economic policy uncertainty, which have “thrown a wrench into business planning,” according to the latest release of the North American Commercial Vehicle OUTLOOK.

The OUTLOOK is a forecast of the status of commercial vehicle demand, tactical and strategic market analysis and forecasts ranging out five years, published by ACT Research, a leading publisher of commercial vehicle truck, trailer and bus industry data, market analysis and forecasts for the North America and China markets.

“Preliminary Class 8 orders dropped 34% y/y to 18,300 units in February. Seasonally adjusted, Class 8 orders fell 28% from January to 16,700 units, and a 200,000-unit SAAR — the lowest SA Class 8 order volume in nearly two years.”

Vieth continued: “With the tractor market already at a low ebb, tariffs are starting to weigh on business decision making, reducing early in the year economic expectations. In addition to uncertainty leading to corporate indecision, the apparent policy path is likely to weigh on key U.S. Class 8 market indicators including freight volumes and, by extension, freight rates, consumer spending and sentiment.”

Vieth anticipated that, in addition to potentially seeing some production moved back to the U.S., the industry will seek to add as much inventory as possible before tariffs are fully enacted.

“Hence, while we cut our forecasts and lower 2025 expectations, tariffs and the threat of more to come are actually boosting activity in the near term,” he noted. “As is always the case with pulling activity forward – there are paybacks.”