Preliminary Class 8 orders slide as Classes 5-7 climb

Preliminary North America Class 8 net orders fell year over year (y/y) in September, putting the brakes on the upward climb seen throughout much of 2026. Preliminary numbers for the month totaled 18,700 units, down 9.5% y/y, according to ACT Research’s State of the Industry Classes 5-8 Vehicles report.

With the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) yet to finalize 2027 NOx rules, ongoing regulatory uncertainty among fleets is a contributor to the softer order intake, the report indicated. It also noted that while September typically marks the start of order season, some OEMs have not yet fully opened their 2027 order boards.

“The 2027 regulatory engine transition is clearly impacting order seasonality this year, but the underlying demand for new equipment remains robust, supported by strong spot rate momentum,” stated Carter Vieth, research analyst at ACT Research. “Fleets are eager to replace aging equipment and prepare for cost increases on the horizon, but the lack of regulatory clarity is making it difficult for them to plan effectively.”

Based on preliminary orders and recent OEM build plans, ACT Research expects the Class 8 backlog in September to decline month over month when full data for Classes 5-8 are released in mid-October.

Preliminary North America Classes 5-7 net orders fared substantially better in September, rising 27% y/y to 20,200 units. Medium-duty order activity has averaged 19,500 units per month in 2026, just above the long-term average, as the segment continues to rebound from a very weak 2025, the report showed.

“Medium-duty’s recovery this year appears to be more of a reversion to the mean than robust growth, with dealer inventory stocking ahead of upcoming regulatory costs in 2027 likely behind some of the recent order strength,” said Vieth. “The resilience of the U.S. economy and still-strong consumer spending, despite rising inflationary pressures, have also aided medium-duty demand in 2026.”